Weather Outlooks for PRF and Annual Forage Insurance Decisions
Makens Weather, led by meteorologist Matt Makens, provides seasonal precipitation outlooks that help ranchers and crop insurance agents choose intervals for Pasture, Rangeland, Forage (PRF) and Annual Forage insurance. Because both programs pay out based on a rainfall index, the decision of which intervals to insure is, at its core, a weather forecasting question.
Why weather outlooks matter for PRF
PRF coverage is built on two-month intervals, and producers must spread their protection across the intervals they think carry the most risk of below-normal rainfall. Choosing well means looking ahead at likely precipitation patterns for the coming year, not just at past averages. Matt's outlooks focus on where and when drier-than-normal periods are most likely, so interval selection is grounded in the season ahead, and ties into Weather Forecasting for Cattle Ranchers and the Beef Industry.
Annual Forage insurance
Annual Forage coverage also relies on a rainfall index, tied to the growing period of annual forage crops. Outlooks for planting-season and early-growth moisture help producers decide which intervals matter most for their operation.
El Niño, La Niña and interval selection
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the strongest signals for seasonal rainfall across cattle and forage country. Matt explains what the current ENSO phase usually means for each region and season, and when that influence is likely to fade, which can shift which intervals look riskiest.
For insurance agents
Agents use Makens Weather outlooks to give clients clear, weather-based context before the sales closing date, through reports, webinars and presentations for producer meetings.
What Makens Weather provides
Seasonal precipitation outlooks by region and interval
ENSO and teleconnection analysis in plain language
Drought monitoring and outlook updates
Presentations for producer meetings and agent trainings
PDF reports of grid analysis are provided along with a written forecast description customized to each request. Contact for pricing.
Matt Makens is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist through the American Meteorological Society, with more than 25 years of forecasting experience.
Frequently asked questions
Which PRF intervals should I choose? The best intervals depend on your location and the weather outlook for the coming year. Makens Weather provides seasonal precipitation outlooks so producers and agents can weigh which two-month intervals carry the most risk of below-normal rainfall.
Can weather forecasts help with PRF insurance? Yes. PRF pays out based on a rainfall index, so a seasonal outlook of likely wet and dry periods helps inform how coverage is spread across intervals.
How does La Niña affect PRF decisions? La Niña often favors drier conditions across the southern Plains, which can make certain intervals riskier there. It can decrease opportunities for drought coverage across parts of the northern U.S.
How does El Niño affect PRF decisions? El Niño often favors drier conditions across the Northern Plains, Northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest, which can make certain intervals more valuable to insure there, while interval choices across the southern U.S. and central Plains become riskier.
Who provides weather outlooks for crop insurance agents? Makens Weather, led by meteorologist Matt Makens, provides outlooks and presentations for agents and producers. Contact
Makens Weather provides weather information only and does not give insurance advice. Coverage decisions should be made with a licensed crop insurance agent.