Weekly Weather Watch: Tuesday, June 16th, 2026
Sea surface temperatures in the region we focus on for El Niño have warmed to an average ONI value of +1.5°C (2.7°F) this week, hitting the lower range for a strong El Niño, and continued warming is expected. El Niño was officially declared last week, and we will be watching for its peak strength as a very strong event late in 2026.
A highly active weather pattern is setting up across the southern and central United States this week. The biggest concern is a prolonged flooding threat from South Texas through Louisiana and into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, where repeated rounds of tropical downpours could produce significant flash flooding. Meanwhile, a powerful storm system will bring the risk of severe thunderstorms from the Midwest into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Wednesday, with damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes possible. While heat eases somewhat across the West, temperatures will remain above average in parts of the Pacific Northwest and California before additional cooling arrives later this week.
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HEADLINERS:
Next 7 Days: Key Timing and Impacts
Tuesday (June 16)
Significant heavy rain develops across South Texas and the Texas Gulf Coast.
Flash flooding concerns increase near Corpus Christi, Houston, and coastal communities.
Showers and thunderstorms move through the Great Lakes.
Hot weather continues across Northern California and the Pacific Northwest.
Wednesday (June 17)
Major flooding threat expands from South Texas into Louisiana.
Tropical moisture surges northward along the western Gulf Coast.
Severe weather outbreak expected across Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin, Indiana, and portions of Michigan.
Damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes become possible.
Heavy rain may accompany severe storms across the Midwest.
Gusty wind for Southern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan.
Thursday (June 18)
Flash flooding threat continues along the Texas Coast, Louisiana, and parts of Mississippi.
Tropical rainfall pushes farther east along the Gulf Coast.
Strong winds spread across the Great Lakes as a powerful storm system moves northeast.
Severe weather threat reaches parts of New York and the Ohio Valley.
Gusty wind in southern Quebec.
Friday (June 19)
Flooding concerns continue across the Central Gulf Coast and Southeast.
Tropical moisture remains concentrated from Louisiana to Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle.
Tropical development near the Texas Coast remains possible.
Gusty wind for the Maritimes.
Weekend (June 20-21)
Heavy rain shifts into the Central Plains, Midwest, and Ohio Valley.
Flooding concerns begin expanding north and east.
Cooler temperatures arrive across much of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies.
Early Next Week (June 22-23)
Heavy rain spreads into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.
Flood risks continue from portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast.
Summer heat remains focused across parts of the Southwest and Gulf Coast states.
SET YOUR WATCHES - WHEN THE MOISTURE ARRIVES:
IN THE GAUGES, PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE 23rd:
Note: these projected totals are likely to be overdone in many areas because thunderstorms will be the primary source of rainfall, and we know they may be spread apart. So, these types of projections for thunderstorm areas reflect a potential rainfall total if you get the storms to pass over you.
RECORDS MADE TO BE BROKEN, DAILY HIGHS (RED) | DAILY LOWS (BLUE):
UN-DROUGHTABLY DRY:
Summer thunderstorms, with their hit-or-miss nature, dominated precipitation patterns across the U.S. this week. The greatest departures from normal precipitation occurred across portions of the central and southern Plains, West Texas, New Mexico, and the Midwest. Areas of southern Louisiana, northern Alabama, and western Kentucky also recorded well-above-normal precipitation. The East Coast remained dry, with the exception of Florida’s Atlantic coast. Much of the West also remained dry, with only portions of the Pacific Northwest and southern California recording near- to above-normal precipitation.
Temperatures for the week were below normal across the Southeast, with parts of Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina averaging 3–6 degrees below normal. Portions of West Texas, southeast New Mexico, and the Pacific Northwest were also below normal. The greatest temperature departures occurred in the central and northern Plains, where portions of Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, and Minnesota experienced temperatures 9–12 degrees above normal.
Drought signals across much of the southern U.S. remain mixed, with wetter short-term conditions developing while long-term deficits persist despite the recent pattern change. In the Plains, impacts have primarily affected winter wheat and forage production, and areas that have remained dry continue to experience elevated fire danger. In the Southeast, water supply concerns and fire danger remain significant, particularly in Florida. - https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
TRACKING THE TROPICS
Two areas to watch. The most likely to develop is the disturbance along the U.S. Gulf Coast, which will spread very heavy rainfall across East Texas and the Gulf Coast this week.
ARE YOU CIRRUS?!
Today in weather history:
2014: Twin EF4 Tornadoes Devastate Pilger, Nebraska. One of the most memorable tornado events of the 2010s occurred when twin EF4 tornadoes struck the small town of Pilger, Nebraska. The tornadoes destroyed much of the community, killed two people, and became one of the most photographed tornado events in modern history. The larger tornado reached winds near 190 mph.
2010: A prolific tornado outbreak began across Montana, South Dakota, and the Northern Plains. Over the next three days, 93 tornadoes would be confirmed, including multiple EF4 tornadoes. Minnesota recorded its most active tornado day on record during this event.
2009: A powerful derecho swept across Kentucky, producing wind gusts approaching 90 mph, widespread power outages, damaging straight-line winds, and several tornadoes. The storm raced west to east across the state during the afternoon and evening.
1992: A massive severe weather outbreak unfolded across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. More than 60 tornadoes were reported on June 16 alone, including several violent tornadoes in Minnesota and South Dakota. The outbreak would eventually produce an F5 tornado near Chandler, Minnesota.
The weather pattern is about to make a pretty sharp turn across the country. California starts the week with unusual October heat, including highs well into the 90s and even lower 100s in the Central Valley. Meanwhile, much cooler fall air has reached the Great Lakes and Northeast. The Gulf Coast and Southeast stay unsettled, and there’s that record to watch: a tropical depression is likely to develop over the Gulf this week and could strengthen as it moves northeast. If it becomes a hurricane after the 8th, 2026 will have the latest-first hurricane in the Atlantic Basin record.