Weekly Weather Watch: Tuesday, June 2nd, 2026
Sea surface temperatures in the region we focus on for El Niño have remained at an average of +1°C (1.8°F) this week, the threshold for a moderate El Niño, and the warming has stalled for the moment. I should note we are not officially in an El Niño pattern yet, but likely will be this summer, fall, and winter. Two links for more information: El Niño 2026, Hurricane Outlook 2026 (Southwest US, Mexico, and Hawai’i beware). These ocean surface conditions continue developing an El Niño at a pace similar to 1997’s event.
An active weather pattern will dominate so many of us through the next seven days as repeated rounds of thunderstorms bring risks for severe weather and flash flooding across the Plains. The greatest concerns through midweek focus on North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, West Texas, and New Mexico, where storms may produce damaging winds, large hail, isolated tornadoes, and locally heavy rainfall. As we head into the weekend, storm chances shift east toward the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast, while summer heat expands across much of the Eastern U.S. Meanwhile, multiple Pacific systems will keep periods of rain returning to the Pacific Northwest. Heavy rainfall and the risk of severe weather affect parts of the Canadian Prairies.
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HEADLINERS:
Next 7 Days: Key Timing and Impacts
Tuesday (June 2)
North Dakota faces the greatest flash flooding concern with repeated thunderstorms capable of producing very heavy rainfall.
Severe thunderstorms may develop across North Dakota, South Dakota, and eastern Montana, bringing risks of large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes.
Heavy rainfall could trigger localized flooding across West Texas and New Mexico, especially near burn scars and higher terrain.
Heavy rainfall and risk of severe weather for parts of Alberta.
Wednesday (June 3)
Another round of severe thunderstorms is possible across the Northern Plains, including North Dakota, South Dakota, and parts of Nebraska.
Flash flooding concerns continue for West Texas and eastern New Mexico as moisture remains focused along a slow-moving boundary.
Showers and thunderstorms spread through portions of the Northern Rockies and Intermountain West.
Heavy rainfall and risk of severe weather for parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
Thursday (June 4)
Storm activity gradually shifts east across portions of the Central Plains.
Locally heavy rainfall remains possible from Texas into the central Plains.
Cooler air begins spreading southward behind the front.
Heavy rainfall and risk of severe weather for parts of Manitoba
Friday (June 5)
Thunderstorms move into parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Midwest.
Isolated flash flooding becomes possible from Minnesota into Wisconsin and surrounding areas.
Rain arrives across the Pacific Northwest as the first in a series of Pacific systems moves inland.
Windy in Alberta.
Saturday (June 6)
Storms expand across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
Warm and increasingly humid conditions develop from the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast.
Continued showers spread through Washington, Oregon, and portions of the northern Rockies.
Windy across the Canadian Prairies.
Sunday (June 7)
Thunderstorms push into the Interior Northeast and Mid-Atlantic with pockets of heavy rainfall possible.
Multiple rounds of thunderstorms continue from the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Above-average temperatures expand across much of the Eastern U.S.
Monday (June 8)
Another Pacific storm system brings renewed rain chances to the Pacific Northwest.
Thunderstorms continue from Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Warm nighttime temperatures increase heat stress concerns along portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Coast.
IN THE GAUGES, PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE 9th:
Note: these projected totals are likely to be overdone in many areas because thunderstorms will be the primary source of rainfall, and we know they may be spread apart. So, these types of projections for thunderstorm areas reflect a potential rainfall total if you get the storms to pass over you. The actual observations will be more isolated totals of these magnitudes. I will not be surprised if we see the heavier rainfall totals along/near I-35 from Oklahoma City to Minneapolis expand compared to what is shown here.
GRAB A RULER, SNOWFALL THROUGH THE 9th:
RECORDS MADE TO BE BROKEN, DAILY HIGHS (RED) | DAILY LOWS (BLUE):
UN-DROUGHTABLY DRY:
A highly active weather pattern brought dramatic temperature swings and widespread rainfall across much of the country. Heavy rain stretched from Texas and Oklahoma to the Mid-Atlantic, helping ease drought concerns in many areas, while parts of the North-Central Plains also received beneficial precipitation. In contrast, the Upper Mississippi Valley, Western Corn Belt, and much of the West remained drier, with above-normal heat persisting in the western U.S. before cooler conditions and late-week rainfall reached the Pacific Northwest. - https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
TRACKING THE TROPICS
A tropical disturbance far southwest of Baja California has become better organized and is likely to develop into the eastern Pacific's next tropical depression within the next day or two. The system is expected to move west or west-northwest, away from land, and currently poses no direct threat to Mexico - Hawai’i, keep an eye on it. Also note another area of low pressure could develop off the coasts of Central America and southern Mexico later this week, with gradual development possible into early next week. For now, interests along the Pacific coast should continue monitoring forecasts, but no immediate land impacts are expected. -NHC.
ARE YOU CIRRUS?!
Today in weather history:
1984 Thunderstorms dropped 6 to 13 inches of rain in Tulsa, OK, in 6 hours. The flooding claimed 14 lives and caused $90 million in property damage. 4600 cars, 743 houses, and 387 apartments were destroyed or severely damaged in the flood.
1967 A slow-moving nor'easter battered New England with high winds, heavy rain, and record late-season snow. Winds 70 to 90 mph in gusts occurred along the coast. Over 7 inches of rain fell at Nantucket, MS, with 6.57 inches in 24 hours, setting a new 24-hour rainfall record. 24.9 inches of snow fell at Mount Washington, NH, to set a new May snowfall record.
The weather pattern is about to make a pretty sharp turn across the country. California starts the week with unusual October heat, including highs well into the 90s and even lower 100s in the Central Valley. Meanwhile, much cooler fall air has reached the Great Lakes and Northeast. The Gulf Coast and Southeast stay unsettled, and there’s that record to watch: a tropical depression is likely to develop over the Gulf this week and could strengthen as it moves northeast. If it becomes a hurricane after the 8th, 2026 will have the latest-first hurricane in the Atlantic Basin record.