Weekly Weather Watch: Tuesday, June 23rd, 2026
El Niño is officially here, and continued strengthening is expected. We will be watching for its peak strength as a very strong event late in 2026. I posted more to YouTube this week: El Niño 2026: Regional Outlooks.
The weather pattern remains active as we head through the final week of June. Severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall will continue to impact parts of the Plains, Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic through the week, while dangerous heat remains locked in across portions of the South and expands eastward by early next week. Meanwhile, wildfire concerns are increasing across the Four Corners region, and a cooling trend is finally on the way for parts of the West this weekend. Residents in several regions should be prepared for rapidly changing weather conditions, including flash flooding, severe storms, and periods of dangerous heat. Heavy precipitation and the risk of severe weather returns to the Canadian Prairies.
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HEADLINERS:
Next 7 Days: Key Timing and Impacts
Tuesday (June 23)
Severe thunderstorms possible across Delmarva, Coastal Carolinas, and portions of the Mid-Atlantic.
Additional severe thunderstorms and flash flooding threat from the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Central Plains.
Dangerous heat continues across the Southwest, Southern Plains, and parts of the West.
Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions persist across the Four Corners Region.
Wednesday (June 24)
Thunderstorms continue across the Central Plains, Southern Plains, and Upper Midwest.
Localized flash flooding remains possible where storms repeatedly track over the same areas.
Increasing monsoon moisture brings more daily storms to portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and the Great Basin.
Cooler air begins spreading into the Northern Plains.
Thursday (June 25)
Stormy conditions continue across portions of the Midwest and Upper Midwest.
Below-average temperatures expand from the Northern Plains toward the Great Lakes and Northeast.
Dangerous heat remains across portions of Texas and the Desert Southwest.
Friday (June 26)
Heavy rain develops across the Midwest and Ohio Valley, with some locations receiving an additional 1-3 inches of rainfall.
Flash flooding concerns increase where soils remain saturated.
Rain spreads into Washington and Oregon as a Pacific storm system arrives.
Temperatures begin cooling noticeably across the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West.
Heavy precipitation in parts of British Columbia and Alberta.
Saturday (June 27)
Multiple thunderstorm complexes continue across the Midwest and Ohio Valley.
Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible.
Heavy rain increases across Montana and portions of the Dakotas.
Cooler weather expands throughout much of the Western U.S.
Heavy precipitation in parts of Canadian Prairies.
Sunday (June 28)
Heat and humidity begin building across the Central Plains, Mississippi Valley, and Southeast.
Severe weather threat gradually shifts eastward.
High elevation snow becomes possible across the highest peaks of the Northern Rockies.
Heavy precipitation in parts of the Canadian Prairies.
Monday (June 29)
Expanding heat dome develops over the Central U.S. and Southeast.
Widespread major heat risk expected from portions of Texas through the Lower Mississippi Valley and into parts of the Southeast.
Heat advisories may become increasingly common.
Storm system continues tracking through the Northern Plains.
SET YOUR WATCHES - WHEN THE MOISTURE ARRIVES:
IN THE GAUGES, PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE 30TH:
Note: these projected totals are likely to be over/under-done in many areas because thunderstorms will be the primary source of rainfall, and we know what they can do.
RECORDS MADE TO BE BROKEN, DAILY HIGHS (RED) | DAILY LOWS (BLUE):
UN-DROUGHTABLY DRY:
The heaviest precipitation this week occurred across the Midwest and southern Plains. Flooding rains developed from south Texas into the Gulf Coast region during and beyond the period considered in this week's analysis. Portions of Illinois and Indiana recorded precipitation totals 4–5 inches above normal. Over the past several weeks, persistent rainfall across the Midwest and central to southern Plains has contributed to widespread drought improvement.
Temperatures were near to above normal across much of the country. The coolest conditions were observed from the central Plains into the northern Rocky Mountains, where portions of Montana and Wyoming averaged 4–6 degrees below normal. In contrast, the East Coast—particularly New England—as well as much of California and southern Nevada, experienced above-normal temperatures. Parts of New England recorded departures of 8–10 degrees above normal. - https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
TRACKING THE TROPICS
1. Central and Western Portion of the East Pacific (EP94): An area of low pressure has formed along the tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Although showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
2. Central and Western East Pacific: A low pressure system is expected to form late this week several hundred miles offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Some slow development of this system is possible after that time, and it could become a tropical depression this weekend or early next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
ARE YOU CIRRUS?!
Today in weather history:
1957 a major tornado outbreak across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest came to an end after producing dozens of tornadoes over four days.
1972 devastating flooding from Hurricane Agnes continued across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
1988 one of America's worst droughts and heat waves was intensifying across the Plains and Midwest.
The weather pattern is about to make a pretty sharp turn across the country. California starts the week with unusual October heat, including highs well into the 90s and even lower 100s in the Central Valley. Meanwhile, much cooler fall air has reached the Great Lakes and Northeast. The Gulf Coast and Southeast stay unsettled, and there’s that record to watch: a tropical depression is likely to develop over the Gulf this week and could strengthen as it moves northeast. If it becomes a hurricane after the 8th, 2026 will have the latest-first hurricane in the Atlantic Basin record.