Weekly Weather Watch: Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
El Niño is well on its way to being one of the strongest in the modern record. Is it the next 1997? I posted more on YouTube: Why 2026 El Niño Isn't a Simple Repeat of 1997
A prolonged and dangerous weather pattern continues across much of the United States this week. A powerful dome of high pressure will keep dangerous heat locked over the Northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and eventually parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, while repeated rounds of thunderstorms bring a serious flash flood threat to southwest Texas. At the same time, the Southwest monsoon is becoming increasingly active, bringing daily thunderstorms and localized flooding concerns across the Four Corners and Intermountain West. Heat and air quality are concerns across Ontario, plus severe weather is possible in Quebec.
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HEADLINERS:
Next 7 Days: Key Timing and Impacts
Tuesday
Dangerous heat continues across the Northern Plains, Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Ontario, with highs approaching or exceeding 100° in many communities.
Heat rapidly expands into New England.
Significant flash flooding develops across the Texas Hill Country and Big Bend as multiple rounds of heavy thunderstorms move through.
Monsoon thunderstorms increase across the Great Basin, Four Corners, and Intermountain West.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across northern New England and Quebec.
Wednesday
Heat spreads into the Mid-Atlantic and lingers around the Great Lakes, with some cities nearing or exceeding 100°.
Dangerous humidity continues from the Northern Plains through the Midwest.
Heavy rainfall persists across southwest Texas, where several additional inches of rain may fall, increasing the risk for life-threatening flash flooding.
Daily afternoon thunderstorms continue throughout the Southwest.
Thursday
Cooler air reaches much of New England, but dangerous heat remains entrenched across the Northern Plains and Midwest.
Flash flooding remains a concern in portions of west and southwest Texas.
Monsoon storms continue from Arizona into the Rockies.
Friday
Dangerous heat continues across the north-central United States, including the Dakotas, Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa, and surrounding states.
Heavy monsoon thunderstorms become more widespread across Arizona, where localized flash flooding is increasingly likely.
Additional thunderstorms develop from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley.
Scattered thunderstorms from Central to Southern Alberta.
Saturday
Heat slowly begins easing across the northern tier but remains hot farther south into parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley.
Scattered heavy thunderstorms continue across the Southwest, Rockies, and portions of the Mid-Atlantic.
Scattered thunderstorms from Central to Southern Alberta.
Sunday
Temperatures gradually trend lower across the northern states.
Daily monsoon thunderstorms continue across the Southwest with localized flooding possible, especially near burn scars and canyons.
Periodic thunderstorms remain possible from the Great Lakes into the East Coast.
Monday
Heat becomes less widespread, though warm conditions continue across portions of the central U.S.
The Southwest monsoon remains active with scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
Monitoring the northeastern Gulf of Mexico for possible tropical development next week.
SET YOUR WATCHES - WHEN THE MOISTURE ARRIVES:
IN THE GAUGES, PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE 21st:
Note: these projected totals are likely to be over/under-done in many areas because thunderstorms will be the primary source of rainfall, and we know what they can do.
RECORDS MADE TO BE BROKEN, DAILY HIGHS (RED) | DAILY LOWS (BLUE):
UN-DROUGHTABLY DRY:
Dry conditions across much of the West led to worsening drought in parts of the Northwest, Wyoming, and Colorado, while scattered thunderstorms produced a mixed picture across the Great Plains with localized improvements and new areas of drought. Significant rainfall brought widespread drought relief to portions of Arkansas, Louisiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and parts of the Northeast and Florida. Meanwhile, dry weather led to expanding drought in parts of the Carolinas, Georgia, Puerto Rico, and northwest Alaska.
FIRE!
Wildfire activity remains elevated across the western U.S., with 105 new fires reported Sunday, including six new large fires. Firefighters are battling 46 uncontained large fires nationwide, with more than 16,800 personnel assigned to incidents. New large fires developed in the Great Basin, Northern California, Eastern U.S., and Alaska, while hot, dry, and breezy conditions continue to support critical fire weather across parts of the Northern Plains, Northern Rockies, Inland Northwest, and Great Basin. Scattered thunderstorms may bring localized lightning and erratic fire behavior to portions of the Southwest and Colorado.
TRACKING THE TROPICS
1. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP96): Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized and are producing gusty winds in association with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions are favorable for continued development. A tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form later today or tonight while the system moves generally west-northwestward, staying well offshore of the coast of Mexico. Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.
2. Well South of the Hawaiian Islands (CP91): Shower and thunderstorm activity has decreased in association with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the Hawaiian Islands. Earlier satellite wind data showed that the system lacks a well-defined surface circulation. A tropical depression could still form over the next day or two while the system moves little. The disturbance is expected to move into less favorable environmental conditions later this week, likely ending its chances of development. Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
3. Well Southwest of the Hawaiian Islands (CP90): A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles to the southwest of the Hawaiian Islands continues to produce an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and the system could become a tropical depression later in the week while it moves slowly northwestward, remaining well southwest of the Hawaiian Islands. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
4. Offshore of Southern and Southwestern Mexico: An area of low pressure is expected to form later this week several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward well offshore of Mexico. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
ARE YOU CIRRUS?!
In weather history:
1995: On the evening of Friday, July 14th, thunderstorms producing severe weather were occurring over Upper Michigan and adjacent portions of Ontario near Sault Saint Marie. By late evening the storms had evolved into a bowing line just northwest of the Mackinac Bridge. At 10:17 PM EDT, the thunderstorm gust front hit the bridge, and a gust to 90 mph was measured. Sustained winds of 80 mph continued on the bridge for ten more minutes. Thus began the intense "Ontario-Adirondacks Derecho" that would cause hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of damage, several deaths, and many injuries as it raced southeast from the northern Great Lakes to the Atlantic coast.
2006: Tropical Storm Bilis tracks across northern Taiwan before making landfall in southeastern China's Fujian province with maximum sustained winds near 65 mph. The storm causes at least 575 deaths in Fujian, Guangdong, and Hunan provinces and direct economic losses near $3.3 billion.
The weather pattern is about to make a pretty sharp turn across the country. California starts the week with unusual October heat, including highs well into the 90s and even lower 100s in the Central Valley. Meanwhile, much cooler fall air has reached the Great Lakes and Northeast. The Gulf Coast and Southeast stay unsettled, and there’s that record to watch: a tropical depression is likely to develop over the Gulf this week and could strengthen as it moves northeast. If it becomes a hurricane after the 8th, 2026 will have the latest-first hurricane in the Atlantic Basin record.