Weekly Weather Watch: Tuesday, July 7th, 2026
El Niño is officially here, and continued strengthening is expected. We will be watching for its peak strength as a very strong event late in 2026. I posted more on YouTube: El Niño 2026: Regional Outlooks.
A busy stretch of summer weather is underway. The greatest concern through midweek will be severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, large hail, isolated tornadoes, and flash flooding from the Dakotas into Minnesota and later the Upper Midwest. At the same time, dangerous heat continues across the Southeast, while a strengthening ridge will send temperatures soaring across the Northern Plains and Central U.S. heading into the weekend. Meanwhile, the Southwest monsoon will gradually become more active, bringing increasing rounds of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. In British Columbia and Quebec, smoke is causing or expected to cause poor air quality and reduced visibility.
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HEADLINERS:
Next 7 Days: Key Timing and Impacts
Tuesday: Severe thunderstorms develop across the Dakotas, eastern Montana, and Minnesota, with damaging winds as the primary threat. Large hail and a few tornadoes are also possible. Smoke in the western to central U.S. as well as BC, SK, MB, ON, and QC.
Tuesday into Wednesday: Heavy rain may trigger localized flash flooding across the Northern Plains, Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Central Appalachians, especially in urban and low-lying areas.
Wednesday: Another round of severe storms shifts into the Upper Mississippi Valley, Upper Great Lakes, Central Plains, and Central High Plains, bringing damaging winds, hail, isolated tornadoes, and locally heavy rainfall.
Through Midweek: Dangerous heat continues across the Southeast, where heat index values between 105° and 115° could create dangerous conditions for anyone spending extended time outdoors.
Wednesday through the Weekend: Heat begins building across the Northern Plains and Central U.S., with temperatures climbing 10 to 20 degrees above average.
Friday through Sunday: The hottest conditions expand across the Northern Plains while oppressive heat persists over much of the Southeast before gradual relief arrives early next week.
Late Week into the Weekend: Monsoon moisture increases across Arizona, New Mexico, the Great Basin, and the Rockies, producing more widespread afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
SET YOUR WATCHES - WHEN THE MOISTURE ARRIVES:
IN THE GAUGES, PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE 14TH:
Note: these projected totals are likely to be over/under-done in many areas because thunderstorms will be the primary source of rainfall, and we know what they can do.
RECORDS MADE TO BE BROKEN, DAILY HIGHS (RED) | DAILY LOWS (BLUE):
UN-DROUGHTABLY DRY:
Active weather delivered heavy showers and locally severe thunderstorms east of the Rockies, with a few exceptions. Some of the heaviest rain, locally 4 to 8 inches or more, fell from portions of the central and southern Plains into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, leading to pockets of flash flooding and lowland flooding. At least five flood-related fatalities were reported in Kentucky and Tennessee. Exceptions to the wet pattern included the western Gulf Coast region, parts of the Southeast, and an area stretching from the east-central Plains into the lower Great Lakes region. At the start of the drought-monitoring period, hot, dry weather dominated the West. However, a pattern change soon delivered cooler weather across the western U.S., along with widespread Northwestern precipitation. Wet snow blanketed some high-elevation sites in the northern Rockies. During the transition from hot to cool weather, gusty winds and low humidity levels favored wildfire ignition and rapid expansion, especially in portions of the eastern Great Basin and Four Corners States. At the end of June, more than a dozen active Western wildfires had scorched more than 10,000 acres of vegetation apiece, with the largest being the 94,000-acre Cottonwood Fire near Beaver, Utah. On June 28, three federal firefighters perished in the Knowles Fire, west of Grand Junction, Colorado. - https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
SMOKIN’
TRACKING THE TROPICS
A developing area of low pressure located well to the southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is currently producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for additional development of this system later this week into the weekend, and a tropical depression could form by that time as the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central Pacific, remaining south of the Hawaiian Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
A low pressure system is expected to form late this weekend or early next week several hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Gradual development is possible after that time as the system moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
ARE YOU CIRRUS?!
Today in weather history:
1905: The mercury soared to 127 degrees at Parker, Arizona to tie the state record established at Fort Mohave on the 15th of June in 1896.
1991: During the early daylight hours of Sunday, July 7, 1991, a bow echo developed over southeast South Dakota and began racing east, producing very damaging winds. This bow echo was the start of a long-lived derecho that lasted 17 hours and affected areas from the Great Plains into western New York and Pennsylvania. Wind gusts in some places reached 80 to 100 mph. The strongest gust, 103 mph, was measured at Sioux Center, Iowa around mid-morning, and the roof of a school was blown off in nearby Orange City.
2004: A tornado occurred in the Rockwell Pass area of Sequoia National Park, California. Since the elevation of the tornado’s ground circulation was approximately 3705 m (12,156 ft) MSL, this was the highest-elevation tornado documented in the United States.
The weather pattern is about to make a pretty sharp turn across the country. California starts the week with unusual October heat, including highs well into the 90s and even lower 100s in the Central Valley. Meanwhile, much cooler fall air has reached the Great Lakes and Northeast. The Gulf Coast and Southeast stay unsettled, and there’s that record to watch: a tropical depression is likely to develop over the Gulf this week and could strengthen as it moves northeast. If it becomes a hurricane after the 8th, 2026 will have the latest-first hurricane in the Atlantic Basin record.