Weekly Weather Watch: Monday, September 8th, 2025
A dynamic weather pattern is unfolding across the U.S. this week. Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Central and Southern High Plains, while cooler, drier air brings a taste of fall to the Northeast and Upper Midwest with frost advisories in place. Meanwhile, tropical moisture continues to fuel daily thunderstorms along the Gulf Coast and Florida, with rain chances stretching up the Eastern Seaboard into New England. In the West, upper-level energy will bring periods of rain and mountain storms from the Pacific Northwest to the Rockies. Air quality remains an issue for much of British Columbia and Alberta due to wildfire smoke.
💧 THE MONTH’S UPDATE
So far, September is tracking closely with the trends outlined in our monthly outlook, shared with members at the start of the month and updated weekly. In addition, members get full access to the week’s forecast conditions with the interactive dashboard:
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HEADLINERS:
Key Weather Impacts:
Monday-Tuesday: Severe thunderstorms with hail, gusty winds, and isolated tornadoes likely across western Kansas, northwest Oklahoma, and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles.
Early Week: Frost Advisories for parts of the Northeast and Upper Midwest—expect chilly mornings.
Through Friday: Daily rounds of thunderstorms and locally heavy rain possible across Florida, with rain chances extending into the Carolinas and possibly up to New England.
Mid to Late Week: Increasing rain chances in the Pacific Northwest, spreading into the Northern Rockies and Great Basin.
Late Week into Weekend: High-elevation snow possible in parts of the Rockies and Southwest Colorado.
Tropical Watch: A weak system may form off the southwestern Mexican coast later this week, but development remains low at this time.
ON THE RADAR:
KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY:
IN THE GAUGES:
RECORDS MADE TO BE BROKEN:
UN-DROUGHTABLY DRY:
TROPICAL TIDINGS:
While no immediate threats are expected for the U.S., the tropics remain active:
Hurricane Kiko continues to churn in the central Pacific, located well east of Hilo, Hawaii. It poses no direct threat to land.
In the eastern Pacific, a tropical wave moving off Central America may gradually develop later this week as it drifts west-northwest, staying offshore of southern and southwestern Mexico.
Development Chance:
Next 48 hours: Near 0%
Next 7 days: Low (30%)
We’ll be monitoring this area for any signs of tropical development that could affect mainland Mexico or increase moisture in the southwestern U.S.
WHERE THERE’S SMOKE, THERE’S …
ARE YOU CIRRUS?!
2004 President George Bush visited the National Hurricane Center in Miami, FL making it the first time that a Commander in Chief had visited the facility.
1965 Hurricane Betsy crossed the Florida Keys during the early morning hours. Winds were estimated at 125 mph with gusts to 165 mph at Big Pine Key.
1900 The greatest disaster in U.S. records occurred when a hurricane struck Galveston, TX. A tide 15 feet high washed over the island demolishing or carrying away buildings, and drowning more than 6000 people. The hurricane destroyed more than 3600 houses, and total damage was more than $30 million. Winds to 120 mph, and a 20 foot storm surge accompanied the hurricane. Following the storm, the surf was three hundred feet inland from the former water line. The hurricane claimed another 1200 lives outside of the Galveston area.
The U.S. weather pattern is locked into a classic early fall transition: a nor’easter-like coastal storm is spinning up off the Southeast, set to lash the Mid-Atlantic coast midweek with rain, wind, and rough surf. Meanwhile, persistent heat grips the Mississippi Valley and Northeast, and storm chances reload late week across the Central and Northern Plains. A soggy setup also lingers over California, South Florida, and parts of the Southwest through the weekend.