Weekly Weather Watch: Monday, August 18th, 2025
Major Hurricane Erin is churning just north of the Bahamas, bringing dangerous surf and rip currents to much of the U.S. East Coast this week. While Erin should stay offshore, its outer bands may brush the Outer Banks later in the week. Elsewhere, extreme heat grips the Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley, and multiple storm systems keep rainfall active across the South, East, and Southwest.
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HEADLINERS:
Key Weather Impacts:
Today–Tuesday: Major Hurricane Erin churns near the Bahamas, extreme heat in the Southern Plains into the Mississippi Valley.
Midweek: Erin tracks offshore; dangerous surf and rip currents spread along the East Coast. Outer rain bands may clip the Outer Banks Thursday.
Thursday–Friday: Heavy rain potential from the Southern Plains to the central Appalachians; flood risk possible in spots.
Southwest: Monsoon storms Thursday–Friday may bring localized flooding to Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado.
Late Week–Weekend: A new front brings showers and thunderstorms to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast; heat lingers in the Southwest with temps over 110°F in some areas.
ON THE RADAR:
KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY:
IN THE GAUGES:
RECORDS MADE TO BE BROKEN:
UN-DROUGHTABLY DRY:
TROPICAL TIDINGS:
Here’s the quick take on the tropics this week:
Major Hurricane Erin is moving northwest, now just north of the Bahamas. It’s powerful but expected to remain offshore the U.S. East Coast.
Even without landfall, Erin will generate dangerous surf and rip currents along much of the coast through late week. The Outer Banks could see some outer rain bands and gusty winds by Thursday.
Bermuda and Atlantic Canada will also feel rough seas from Erin’s swells later in the week.
Elsewhere, a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic may gradually develop. There’s about a 50% chance of formation over the next 7 days as it moves toward the Leeward Islands by the end of the week.
👉 Bottom line: Erin = surf/rip current hazard for the East Coast; watching another system that could be the next named storm later this week.
WHERE THERE’S SMOKE, THERE’S …
ARE YOU CIRRUS?!
1983 Hurricane Alicia, a category 3 storm made landfall near Galveston. Winds gusted to 130 mph with a storm surge of 12 feet. 22 tornadoes were spawned. Parts of Houston received 11 inches of rain. 12 people died and 1800 were injured. Total damage estimated at $3 billion.
1955 Remnants of Hurricane Connie killed 38 vacationers at Camp Davis near East Stroudsberg, PA by pouring up to 12 inches of rain.
The U.S. weather pattern is locked into a classic early fall transition: a nor’easter-like coastal storm is spinning up off the Southeast, set to lash the Mid-Atlantic coast midweek with rain, wind, and rough surf. Meanwhile, persistent heat grips the Mississippi Valley and Northeast, and storm chances reload late week across the Central and Northern Plains. A soggy setup also lingers over California, South Florida, and parts of the Southwest through the weekend.