Weekly Weather Watch: Tuesday, October 14th, 2025
A potent Pacific storm is bringing a wet and wintry start to the week for the western U.S., with Southern California and the Southern Rockies facing the risk of flash flooding. Heavy snow is piling up in the Sierra Nevada and will shift to the Northern Rockies by Wednesday. As the week continues, the storm moves east, bringing widespread rain to the Plains, Mid-South, and eventually the East Coast. Meanwhile, another storm system is set to push into the Pacific Northwest by late weekend, keeping the unsettled weather going into next week. Tropical Storm Lorenzo remains out in the Atlantic with no expected U.S. impact. Across Canada, heavy western moisture, including snow in the mountains. Elsewhere, semi-heavy moisture will move across the central and eastern Prairies toward Ontario. Also, widespread frost and freezing temperatures are possible for all provinces.
💧 OCTOBER’S UPDATE
Members, October’s outlook is on track, and yesterday you saw the outlook into mid-November. In addition, members get full access to the week’s forecast conditions with the interactive dashboard:
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HEADLINERS:
Key Weather Impacts:
Tuesday (Oct 14):
Heavy rain and flash flooding risk in Southern California and the Southern Rockies
Snowstorm in the Sierra Nevada Mountains
Wednesday (Oct 15):
Snow expands into the Northern Rockies
Rain and storms spread into the Great Basin, Central Rockies, and Southern High Plains
Thursday (Oct 16):
Showers linger in the Rockies and Northern Plains
Rain reaches the Great Lakes
Friday (Oct 17):
A new system brings increasing rain to the Mid-Mississippi Valley
Mild temps surge ahead of the front, especially in the Central U.S.
Saturday (Oct 18):
Marginal risk of heavy rain across the Mid-South
Breezy and wet across parts of the Northern Plains
Sunday–Monday (Oct 19–20):
Rain moves into the Northeast and Southeast
Another Pacific system enters the Pacific Northwest with valley rain and mountain snow
Tuesday (Oct 21):
Wet pattern shifts across the West again with potential for renewed mountain snow
ON THE RADAR:
KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY:
IN THE GAUGES:
GRAB A RULER:
RECORDS MADE TO BE BROKEN:
UN-DROUGHTABLY DRY:
Drought conditions worsened this week across parts of the Northeast, Midwest, and Southeast, especially in areas like Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Georgia. In contrast, southeast Missouri, the Ohio River Valley, and parts of Louisiana saw welcome rainfall, with some spots receiving over 5 inches—leading to significant drought improvement.
Dry weather also triggered new drought development in northeast Montana, west Texas, and western Louisiana. Meanwhile, recent heavy rains brought widespread improvement in the Las Vegas area, northern Nevada, Utah, Oregon, and southwest Idaho. -U.S. Department of Agriculture
TROPICAL TIDINGS:
Tropical Storm Lorenzo is currently spinning in the central Atlantic, about 1,000 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. The storm is poorly organized, with most of the stronger thunderstorms located east of the center.
Lorenzo’s Movement: The storm is drifting northwestward and is expected to turn north, then northeast by midweek.
No U.S. Threat: At this time, Lorenzo poses no direct threat to North America. No coastal watches or warnings are in effect.
Forecast Outlook: Little change in strength is expected, and Lorenzo should remain over open waters.
Elsewhere in the tropics, a weak tropical wave near 96W in the eastern Pacific is producing scattered showers and storms. No immediate development is expected, but it will be monitored as it moves west. -NOAA’s NHC
WHERE THERE’S SMOKE, THERE’S …
ARE YOU CIRRUS?!
1965 24.28 inches of rain fell on Fort Lauderdale, Florida. Two weeks later, another 18.15 inches fell.
1942 Midnapore Cyclone struck India and was accompanied by wind speeds of 140 mph.
1966 A half mile wide F5 tornado struck Belmond, IA during a homecoming parade. Fortunately the threatening skies caused the crowd to seek safe shelter indoors.
A dynamic weather pattern will dominate the U.S. this week. Scattered showers and lake-effect thunderstorms will linger across the Great Lakes, while breezy, cooler air spreads into the Northeast. The Southern Plains face a growing flood risk by Friday as heavy rain and storms roll in from Oklahoma to Louisiana. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Melissa has formed in the Caribbean, with potential impacts for Haiti and Jamaica by late week—though the track remains highly uncertain. Out West, a shift toward colder weather will bring rain to the Pacific Northwest and snow to the Rockies by the weekend. And in southern Texas, unseasonable heat continues with record highs and heightened fire weather concerns. Across Canada, areas of strong wind for the West along with heavy precitation from British Columbia to the mountainous areas of Alberta. Pockets of heavy moisture will hit sections of Ontario and Quebec.