Weekly Weather Watch: Tuesday, May 12th, 2026
A busy weather pattern is unfolding across the country this week with multiple hazards to monitor. Severe thunderstorms could flare up from parts of Florida into the Great Lakes and portions of the central Plains through tonight, while elevated fire danger continues across the northern Plains. Farther east, rounds of rain and thunderstorms will track from the Midwest into the Northeast through late week, bringing periods of gusty weather and locally heavy rainfall. Meanwhile, temperatures will continue running well above average across much of the West and will expand into the central and eastern U.S. heading into the weekend. By early next week, another developing storm system may bring a more active severe weather and heavy rain setup across the nation’s midsection.
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HEADLINERS:
Next 7 Days: Key Timing and Impacts
Tuesday Afternoon & Evening: Isolated severe thunderstorms possible across Florida, the Great Lakes, the Lower Missouri Valley, and parts of the south-central Plains with damaging wind gusts and hail possible.
Tuesday Night – Thursday: Waves of rain and thunderstorms spread from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast as a cold front pushes east.
Wednesday – Thursday: Persistent showers and thunderstorms continue across the Southeast, especially near the stalled frontal boundary. Heavy precipitation pushes from Quebec to the Maritimes.
Wednesday – Thursday: A Pacific system brings scattered rain and isolated thunderstorms into the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. Gusty wind east of the Rockies from Alberta into Montana.
Thursday Morning: Higher elevations of the Northern Intermountain West could see late-season snow mixed with rain.
Late Week: Elevated to critical fire weather concerns persist across the northern Great Plains due to dry and windy conditions.
Friday – Saturday: Coastal low pressure may bring gusty winds and periods of moderate rain to parts of New England. Heavy precipitation spreads across British Columbia and the Canadian Rockies.
Weekend Into Early Next Week: Another storm system may organize across the central U.S., increasing the risk for stronger thunderstorms and heavier rainfall from the Plains into portions of the Midwest.
Through Early Next Week: Above-normal temperatures spread from the West into much of the Central and Eastern U.S., with some areas seeing early summer-like warmth.
IN THE GAUGES, PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE 19TH:
Note: these projected totals are likely to be overdone in many areas because thunderstorms will be the primary source of rainfall, and we know they may be spread apart. So, these types of projections for thunderstorm areas reflect a potential rainfall total if you get the storms to pass over you. The actual observations will be more isolated totals of these magnitudes.
GRAB A RULER, SNOWFALL THROUGH THE 19TH:
RECORDS MADE TO BE BROKEN, DAILY HIGHS (RED) | DAILY LOWS (BLUE):
UN-DROUGHTABLY DRY:
Widespread rain brought welcome drought relief to parts of Texas, the lower Mississippi Valley, and the Tennessee Valley, helping improve soil moisture in several hard-hit areas. However, drought conditions changed little across southeastern Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle, where soils and streams remain very dry. Farther north, cooler temperatures and lighter rainfall helped slow drought expansion in the Northeast, with some improvement noted in Maine. Meanwhile, drought and abnormal dryness expanded in parts of the Mid-Atlantic, Hudson Valley, and southern New England where rainfall totals were lower. Across the Plains, drought continued to grow despite cooler weather, while dry conditions aided spring planting and fieldwork in the upper Midwest. In the West, hot and dry weather worsened conditions in Arizona and northwestern Washington, while late-season precipitation in northern California did little to improve the region’s limited snowpack.. - https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
ARE YOU CIRRUS?!
Today in weather history:
1971 A chain reaction car accident happened near Casa Grande, AZ, after dust storms reduced visibility to near zero. Seven people were killed.
1965 A tropical cyclone hit Bangladesh, killing 36,000 people.
An active and impactful weather pattern is setting up across much of North America through next week. Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected from the eastern Canadian Prairies, U.S. Plains into the Mississippi Valley, bringing the risk of damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes. Heavy rainfall may lead to localized flooding from the Northern Plains to the Southeast, while wildfire concerns continue across the Four Corners region. At the same time, summer heat is building, with the East experiencing its hottest temperatures of the season late this week before above-average warmth expands westward during the weekend.